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A Public prediction is open to anyone, carries a winner rule and a source anyone can check, and is settled by an AI verdict you can appeal to a human reviewer. A Private prediction is one-on-one and invite-only with no referee: you both declare the outcome, and if your declarations conflict, both sides forfeit their stake plus the handling fee.

Nobody declares. Once the Resolution Time has passed, an AI checks the outcome against the winner rule and its sources and announces a verdict. The side it goes against gets an appeal window (24 hours by default, shown with the result) to accept it - the coins move at once - or to escalate to a human reviewer, who decides within 72 hours. If the AI can't read a clear result yet, it checks again later and the card shows the progress; if it still can't, a human reviewer picks the next check or sends it to human review.

A refundable deposit (10% of your amount, 2 coins minimum) held alongside your coins on every Public prediction. It comes back in full when the prediction settles - including when you accept a verdict or let the appeal window pass. It is forfeited in one case only: a verdict is challenged, a human reviewer decides, and the decision goes against you - whether you were the one who challenged or the one who was challenged. If the AI could not read the outcome at all and a reviewer decides it, nobody is at fault and both deposits come back.

After the declaration window closes, a silent side is recorded as having lost, and whoever did declare wins the pair. Non-participation costs you.

The Initiator invites you by username - it shows up at the top of your Predictions list and is emailed to you - or sends you a single-use link. Only invited people can Shake on it, and it never appears in Public Predictions or the Ledger.

Press + and choose Sports prediction (or open Games schedule under Sports in the categories). Pick a league and a game from the NFL, NBA, WNBA, MLB, NHL, MLS, the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 or the UEFA Champions, Europa and Conference Leagues, choose who wins and by how much, and set your coins. The app writes the sentence and the winner rule from the game, and it's published as a Public prediction anyone can join until the game starts. It settles from the official final score, usually within a few hours of the end.

Press + and choose Index prediction (or open Index trading days under Finance). Pick the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, FTSE 100, DAX 40, Nikkei 225 or TA-35 and one of its next trading days, and say whether it closes higher or lower than it opens that day - by any amount or by at least 0.5%, 1% or 2%. Only the move during the day counts. Joining closes when that market opens, and it settles from that day's official opening and closing values about an hour after the close. Only days the market is open are offered; if the close equals the open, it settles FALSE.

If the game is moved, the prediction moves with it: joining follows the new start time (it never reopens once closed), and the result is checked after the new start. If the game is cancelled, or isn't played within a week of its original start, the prediction is called off - everyone gets back exactly what they put in, including the dispute deposit, and nobody wins or loses. It doesn't count toward your wins, losses, streak or rating.

When you create a Public prediction, you can tap Generate tags to have us suggest a few relevant topic tags from it. Tags help people find your prediction when they search or browse Public Predictions by topic - you can edit or remove any of them before you publish.

Coins are what you put behind predictions. New accounts start with a signup bonus, and you can earn more by winning Shakes, the daily bonus, and referring friends.

Create or join a public prediction, then collect your coins on the Coins page. The next collect opens 24 hours later and needs another new prediction first. Keep it up and the amount climbs day by day; if more than 48 hours pass between collects, it starts again from Day 1. If you don't have enough coins to make a prediction, you can collect without one.

You gain rating points for settling Shakes cleanly and lose them for disputes. Your rating and dispute count show in the header and on your dashboard.